Making sense of Brexit losses: an in-depth review of macroeconomic studies

Latorre, Maria C. / Zoryana Olekseyuk / Hidemichi Yonezawa / Sherman Robinson
External Publications (2019)

in: Economic Modelling, 22 October 2019 (Online)

Information

Almost all economic assessments of Brexit conclude that there would be significant losses for both the UK and the EU. This paper examines the driving forces behind these results. We consider the strong economic relationships between the UK and EU both at the sectoral and macroeconomic levels that are at risk from Brexit. We review fifteen studies that explore various Brexit scenarios (hard and soft) and explain why their different methodologies and assumptions yield different degrees of economic damage. Our review concludes that GDP losses for the UK from a hard Brexit range from 1.6% to 7.8%, while a soft Brexit would moderate the losses by roughly half. We also find that potential UK trade agreements with third countries could partially compensate for significant Brexit losses.

About the author

Olekseyuk, Zoryana

Economist

Olekseyuk

Further experts

Berger, Axel

Political Science 

Brandi, Clara

Economy and Political Science 

Hadank-Rauch, Rebecca

Environmental and Development Sciences 

Haug, Sebastian

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Mehl, Regine

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Morare, Ditebogo Modiegi

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Nowack, Daniel

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Owusu, Solomon

Economy 

Stender, Frederik

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Stewart, Benjamin

Social Science 

Volz, Ulrich

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Wehrmann, Dorothea

Sociology 

Wingens, Christopher

Political Scientiest