Beyond headline mitigation numbers: we need more transparent and comparable NDCs to achieve the Paris Agreement on climate change

Pauw, Pieter / Richard J. T. Klein / Kennedy Mbeva / Adis Dzebo / Davide Cassanmagnago / Anna Rudloff
Externe Publikationen (2017)

in: Climatic Change (online first 19 December 2017), 1-7

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-017-2122-x
Volltext/Document

Nationally determined contributions (NDCs) were key to reaching the Paris Agreement and will be instrumental in implementing it. Research was quick to identify the ‘headline numbers’ of NDCs: if these climate action plans were fully implemented, global mean warming by 2100 would be reduced from approximately 3.6 to 2.7°C above pre-industrial levels (Höhne et al. Climate Pol 17:1–17, 2016; Rogelj et al. Nature 534:631–639, 2016). However, beyond these headline mitigation numbers, NDCs are more difficult to analyse and compare.

UN climate negotiations have so far provided limited guidance on NDC formulation, which has resulted in varying scopes and contents of NDCs, often lacking details concerning ambitions. If NDCs are to become the long-term instrument for international cooperation, negotiation, and ratcheting up of ambitions to address climate change, then they need to become more transparent and comparable, both with respect to mitigation goals, and to issues such as adaptation, finance, and the way in which NDCs are aligned with national policies.

Our analysis of INDCs and NDCs (Once a party ratifies the Paris Agreement, it is invited to turn its Intended Nationally Determined Contribution (INDC) into an NDC. We refer to results from our INDC analysis rather than our NDC analysis in this commentary unless otherwise stated.) shows that they omit important mitigation sectors, do not adequately provide details on costs and financing of implementation, and are poorly designed to meet assessment and review needs.

Über die Autorin

Pauw, Pieter

Umweltwissenschaftler

Pauw

Weitere Expertinnen/Experten zu diesem Thema

Altenburg, Tilman

Wirtschaftsgeograph 

Bauer, Steffen

Politikwissenschaftler 

Brandi, Clara

Ökonomin und Politikwissenschaftlerin 

Breuer, Anita

Politikwissenschaftlerin 

Messner, Dirk

Politikwissenschaftler 

Haldenwang, Christian von

Politikwissenschaftler 

Horstmann, Britta

Geographin 

Houdret, Annabelle

Politikwissenschaftlerin 

Koch, Svea

Sozialwissenschaftlerin 

Leininger, Julia

Politikwissenschaftlerin 

Mehl, Regine

Politikwissenschaftlerin 

Never, Babette

Politikwissenschaftlerin 

Pegels, Anna

Ökonomin 

Baumann, Max-Otto

Politikwissenschaftler 

Chan, Sander

Umweltpolitik 

Dick, Eva

Soziologin und Raumplanerin 

El-Haddad, Amirah

Ökonomin 

Fuhrmann, Hanna

Ökonomin 

Keil, Jonas

Ökonom 

Kuhn, Sascha

Sozialpsychologe 

Mathis, Okka Lou

Politikwissenschaftlerin 

Nguyen, Quynh

Politikwissenschaftlerin 

Nowack, Daniel

Politikwissenschaftler 

Rodríguez de Francisco, Jean Carlo

Umweltwissenschaftler 

Malerba, Daniele

Ökonom 

Bencini, Jacopo

Umweltwissenschaftler